Results of the prognosis on the epidemiological situation with hepatitis C depending on the strategy of antiviral therapy

Abstract

The impact of various antiviral strategies (VAS) on the epidemiological burden of chronic hepatitis C by 2030 was assessed in three regions of the Russian Federation: the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Kaliningrad region and the Republic of Tatarstan (addressed further as pilot regions), The assessment was provided accounting for information on the true prevalence of infection caused by the hepatitis virus C in a conditionally healthy population. Methods of mathematical modeling were applied in the research. As a result, the lack of measures to increase the treatment coverage of patients with CHC and the further use of ineffective antiviral treatment will not significantly affect the epidemiological burden of hepatitis C in Russia. At the same time, significant effect on morbidity and mortality due to CHC can be achieved only by switching to VAS using drugs with direct antiviral effect and increasing the gradual coverage of patients with CHC. It was estimated that the minimum possible level of coverage of patients with CHC therapy should be 60% by 2030, as well as from 2022 all patients should receive therapy based on drugs with direct antiviral effect.

Keywords:epidemiological situation with hepatitis C, chronic viral hepatitis, mathematical modeling, prognostic model, coverage of antiviral therapy

Funding. The study had no sponsor support.

Conflict of interests. The authors declare no conflict of interests.

For citation: Yushchuk N.D., Ivakhnenko O.I., Znoyko O.O., Dudina K.R., Zaratyants O.V., Mikhailov M.I., Malinnikova E.Yu., Krasnenkova S.F., Kyuregyan K.K., Kravchenko I.E., Sozinova Yu.M., Fazylov V.Kh., Sleptsova S.S., Isaeva O.V., Kichatova V.S., Lopatukhina M.A., Potemkin I.S., Krasnova O.G., Ivanov I.B., Rukosueva E.V. Results of the prognosis on the epidemiological situation with hepatitis C depending on the strategy of antiviral therapy. Infektsionnye bolezni: novosti, mneniya, obuchenie [Infectious Diseases: News, Opinions, Training]. 2020; 9 (4): 60-71. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33029/2305-3496-2020-9-4-60-71 (in Russian)

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CHIEF EDITOR
Aleksandr V. Gorelov
Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, MD, Head of Infection Diseases and Epidemiology Department of the Scientific and Educational Institute of Clinical Medicine named after N.A. Semashko ofRussian University of Medicine, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Professor of the Department of Childhood Diseases, Clinical Institute of Children's Health named after N.F. Filatov, Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Deputy Director for Research, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Rospotrebnadzor (Moscow, Russian Federation)

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