Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in the Stavropol region: contemporaryclinical and epidemiological aspects and new approach to forecasting of morbidity

• Prislegina Daria A.
• Dubyanskiy V.M.
• Maletskaya Olga V.
• Kulichenko A.N.
• Vasilenko Nadezhda F.
• Manin Evgeniy A.
• Kovalchuk I.V.

Abstract

Aim of the study - the analysis of epidemic manifestations of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in the Stavropol region from 2012 to 2016, the development and testing of a risk-based methodology for quantitative forecasting of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever cases for each administrative district of the Stavropol territory.

Material and methods. Data of statistical documentation Department of Rospotrebnadzor in Stavropol region, results of the laboratory studies of field material, demographic statistics of State Statistics Service, hydrometeorological data were used. The risk-based forecasting methodology was created using the method of inhomogeneous sequential pattern recognition procedures. All calculations have been made automatically in the program that we have created (based on Microsoft Excel 2010).

Results and Discussion. The main clinical and epidemiological features of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in the Stavropol region are as follows: the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever cases are unevenly distributed on the Stavropol territory, most of patients have been infected by tick bites or crushing ticks in the care of livestock. It was shown that a moderate forms (79%) of disease without symptoms of hemorrhagic syndrome (69.8%) prevailed in Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic patients. The high reliability results of the testing of a risk-based methodology for forecasting of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever cases for each administrative district of the Stavropol territory are noted. 3 (2.3%) false positive results, 3 (2.3%) overstated results and 2 (1.6%) false negative results for all of administrative districts of the Stavropol territory from 2013 to 2016 had been received.

Keywords:Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, morbidity, risk factors, forecasting, epidemic situation

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